What CompactStats is

CompactStats is a football research tool for the goals markets — over 2.5, over 3.5, both teams to score — and match results. It covers 110+ leagues and 31 cups across five seasons, refreshes several times a day, and shows a calibrated probability for every fixture rather than a tip.

Calibrated means what it sounds like: when a rating says 60%, that outcome should happen about 60% of the time. We test that claim by replaying tens of thousands of past matches, making each prediction using only information that existed before kick-off, and comparing what we said with what happened. Every weighting in the model earned its place that way, and the studies are published in full — including the ideas that failed.

How to read a fixture

Each row shows our pick, the probability behind it, and the edge — our probability minus the bookmaker's, once their margin is stripped out. The edge column is the one that matters for value: a 72% call priced at odds implying 75% is a confident opinion and a poor bet, while a 55% call priced at 48% is the reverse. Confidence and value are different things, and the site keeps them in separate columns on purpose.

Open any fixture for the full picture: each side's season form at home, away and overall; how their goals split between halves; head-to-head history; league table position; a score projection; and the callouts that flag things the raw numbers hide — a side returning from a long break, a 2,000km midweek trip, or a contradiction with our own outlier boards.

Where we say nothing

Roughly a third of the fixtures we cover carry no pick at all, and that is deliberate. European qualifier rounds graded a coin flip across 1,150 historical games, so we stopped calling them. Cup ties where a side has played fewer than three league matches give the model nothing team-specific to work with. And in August 2026 we deleted our Over 3.5 under-calls despite a 75% strike rate, because always saying "under" scores about 70% anyway. Empty cells are not gaps in the product; they are the places a number would have been decoration.

The record

Finished games are graded against official results, and since 31 July 2026 every rating is frozen before kick-off into a version-controlled ledger. Improvements to the model apply from that moment forward and cannot reach backwards, so what you saw before a match is what stays on the page afterwards — wins and misses alike. The daily strongest-combination selections lock the same way each morning, before play. The latest 30 days are graded market by market on our record page, rebuilt after every data refresh.

The research behind it

Every model choice on this site came from a study we ran on our own data, and each one is published in full — including the tests that failed and the ideas we abandoned.

• What a promoted team is really worth 465 promoted and relegated sides: their numbers from the division they left point the wrong way. Only the direction of the move predicts.
• Early-season league averages lie Six matches into a season a league can look like it has changed character. We measured how much of that is real: almost none of it.
• Why four strong picks make a weak bet Four 70% calls together are not a 70% bet. They are a 24% bet — and that gap is where accumulator marketing lives.
• Home/away form splits are ~94% noise A 30,582-match study: most home/away over-rate gaps are indistinguishable from coin flips — and models that trust them get worse.
• European qualifiers grade like coin flips 1,150 UEFA qualifier games: our goals calls landed 51.4% — so we stopped making them.
• What a 70% call really means 44,728 walk-forward matches: calls rated 67%+ landed 68.5% — calibrated, streaky, and not automatically valuable.
• Why an honest model almost never picks a draw 45,556 matches: the highest draw probability our model ever produced was 46.8% — draws are real, calibrated, and almost never the most likely outcome.
• Travel, breaks, and the European hangover Long trips cost win probability but not goals; form streaks die over long breaks; and the fabled post-Europe slump barely exists.

Start with today's league and team stats, read the methodology, or browse all research. CompactStats is an independent site operated from Northern Ireland. It is a research aid, not betting advice, and it is for over-18s.