About CompactStats

CompactStats is an independent football research tool for the goals markets — over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals, both teams to score — and match results. It covers over a hundred leagues and cups worldwide, refreshes its data several times a day, and gives every fixture a calibrated probability rather than a tip.

What makes it different

• Calibrated, not hyped. When we say 60%, it should happen about 60% of the time. Every change to the model is tested on tens of thousands of past matches, replayed using only what was known before each kick-off.
• Graded in public. Every rating is frozen before kick-off and graded against the official result, and nothing is edited afterwards. The latest 30 days are on our record page.
• We show the working. Every fixture explains how its rating was built, step by step, and the methodology sets out the whole model.
• We publish what failed. Our research includes the ideas we tested and dropped, a call we retired while it was winning, and the corrections we have made. Every change is dated on the updates page.
• We know when to stay quiet. Roughly a third of fixtures get no pick at all — European qualifiers, pre-season cup ties, teams with too little data — because the evidence says the model has nothing useful to add.

Where the data comes from

Fixtures, results, half-time scores and, where leagues publish them, expected goals (xG), corners and cards come from API-Football, a commercial football-data provider. Bookmaker prices are a snapshot from the same feed. Live scores update within about a minute while games are in play.

Editorial principles

• No tips for sale, no paid picks, and no "guaranteed" anything.
• No bookmaker affiliate links. If that ever changes, every such link will be clearly labelled — see the disclaimer.
• Advertising, when shown, is kept visibly separate from our statistics and never influences them.
• The site is for people aged 18 and over, and every page links to free, confidential gambling support.

Who runs it

CompactStats is an independent project operated from Northern Ireland, United Kingdom. It is not affiliated with any league, club, data provider or bookmaker. Corrections, questions and ideas are welcome at hello@compactstats.com.