HNL · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 14:00 UK time
CompactStats rates HNK Rijeka vs NK Varazdin (HNL, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 51% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with HNK Rijeka 57%, the draw 23% and NK Varazdin 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| HNK Rijeka win | 57% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| NK Varazdin win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 56% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 9 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| NK Varazdin | 11 | 45% | 27% | 45% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 73% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 40% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 56% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 41% | 2nd 38% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 66% | 74% | 50 |
| NK Varazdin | 72% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 74% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: HNK Rijeka season stats · NK Varazdin season stats · HNL table and form
League. HNL has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. HNK Rijeka 6 of 9 (4 of 4 at home), NK Varazdin 5 of 11 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 55% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 48% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 49%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 25% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.86 (HNK Rijeka) v 1.01 (NK Varazdin) give 55%; 30% weight: 50%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 51%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.