HNL · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The HNL average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts HNK Rijeka at 57%, the draw at 23% and NK Varazdin at 20%, from expected goals of 1.86 and 1.01.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HNK Rijeka have 6 in 9 this season (4 of 4 at home), NK Varazdin 4 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.86 for HNK Rijeka and 1.01 for NK Varazdin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Rijeka | 9 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| NK Varazdin | 10 | 40% | 30% | 40% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The HNL rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 39% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 40% for two or more (league 77% and 41%). HNK Rijeka's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 74%; NK Varazdin's last 50, 72% and 72%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 41%, first 31%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: HNK Rijeka season stats · NK Varazdin season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.