USL Championship · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 02:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Orange County SC at 29%, the draw at 28% and Sacramento Republic at 42%, from expected goals of 1 and 1.26.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 44% | -6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 56% | +6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | 51% | 54% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Orange County SC 3.50, draw 3.50, Sacramento Republic 1.85.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orange County SC have 10 in 22 this season (4 of 10 at home), Sacramento Republic 7 in 21 (2 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 39%, from expected goals of 1 for Orange County SC and 1.26 for Sacramento Republic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 22 | 45% | 36% | 64% |
| Sacramento Republic | 21 | 33% | 19% | 52% |
More: Orange County SC season stats · Sacramento Republic season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.