J3 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Tochigi SC vs Fukushima United (J3 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Tochigi SC 48%, the draw 24% and Fukushima United 29%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| Tochigi SC win | 48% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Fukushima United win | 29% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 13 | 38% | 31% | 46% |
| Fukushima United | 13 | 92% | 62% | 92% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 66% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 34% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 77% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 47% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 49% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tochigi SC | 62% | 70% | 50 |
| Fukushima United | 78% | 88% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 64% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Tochigi SC season stats · Fukushima United season stats · J3 League table and form
League. J3 League has had over 2.5 goals in 49% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Tochigi SC 5 of 13 (3 of 6 at home), Fukushima United 12 of 13 (6 of 7 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 64%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 42% and 60%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 51%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 51%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.79 (Tochigi SC) v 1.34 (Fukushima United) give 61%; 30% weight: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.