J2 League · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 05:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Shonan Bellmare vs Sagan Tosu (J2 League, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Shonan Bellmare 47%, the draw 29% and Sagan Tosu 24%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | Yes |
| Shonan Bellmare win | 47% | Pick |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Sagan Tosu win | 24% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 31% | 15% | 69% |
| Sagan Tosu | 13 | 38% | 23% | 38% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 30% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 39% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 52% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shonan Bellmare | 66% | 80% | 50 |
| Sagan Tosu | 70% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Shonan Bellmare season stats · Sagan Tosu season stats · J2 League table and form
League. J2 League has had over 2.5 goals in 46% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Shonan Bellmare 4 of 13 (2 of 6 at home), Sagan Tosu 5 of 13 (2 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 41% and 43%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 45%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 100% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 48%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.31 (Shonan Bellmare) v 0.86 (Sagan Tosu) give 37%; 30% weight: 44%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.