Championship · Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · 19:45 UK time
CompactStats rates Derby vs Norwich (Championship, Tuesday, 3 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with Derby 27%, the draw 24% and Norwich 49%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | Yes |
| Derby win | 27% | |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Norwich win | 49% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 35% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 41% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Derby season stats · Norwich season stats · Championship table and form
League. Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Derby 6 of 12 (3 of 6 at home), Norwich 9 of 12 (5 of 6 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 60%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 52% and 53%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.22 (Derby) v 1.73 (Norwich) give 57%; 30% weight: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.