USL Championship · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 02:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa (USL Championship, Monday, 2 November 2026) 43% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Sacramento Republic 44%, the draw 28% and FC Tulsa 28%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Sacramento Republic win | 44% | Pick |
| Draw | 28% | |
| FC Tulsa win | 28% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 30 | 33% | 23% | 57% |
| FC Tulsa | 30 | 30% | 20% | 43% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 68% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 29% | 33% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 45% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 54% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 45% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 54% | 76% | 50 |
| FC Tulsa | 66% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 66% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Sacramento Republic season stats · FC Tulsa season stats · USL Championship table and form
League. USL Championship has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Sacramento Republic 10 of 30 (7 of 15 at home), FC Tulsa 9 of 30 (6 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 41% and 39%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 42% and 40%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 43%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 40%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.35 (Sacramento Republic) v 1.01 (FC Tulsa) give 42%; 30% weight: 41%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 43%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.