MLS · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 01:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United FC (MLS, Monday, 2 November 2026) 56% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with Los Angeles FC 54%, the draw 24% and Minnesota United FC 23%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | – |
| Both teams to score | 57% | Yes |
| Los Angeles FC win | 54% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Minnesota United FC win | 23% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | |
| Goal in both halves | 63% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 31 | 48% | 35% | 48% |
| Minnesota United FC | 31 | 65% | 45% | 71% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 41% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 51% |
| Goal in both halves | 63% | 64% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 70% | 88% | 50 |
| Minnesota United FC | 72% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 78% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Los Angeles FC season stats · Minnesota United FC season stats · MLS table and form
League. MLS has had over 2.5 goals in 61% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Los Angeles FC 15 of 31 (7 of 15 at home), Minnesota United FC 20 of 31 (13 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 54% and 63%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 55% and 62%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 59%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 56%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.82 (Los Angeles FC) v 1.11 (Minnesota United FC) give 56%; 30% weight: 56%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.