First League · Monday, 2 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia (First League, Monday, 2 November 2026) 47% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Arda Kardzhali 62%, the draw 23% and Septemvri Sofia 15%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Arda Kardzhali win | 62% | Pick |
| Draw | 23% | |
| Septemvri Sofia win | 15% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 52% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 45% | 36% | 55% |
| Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 64% | 18% | 55% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 66% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 42% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 52% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 66% | 70% | 50 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 68% | 84% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Arda Kardzhali season stats · Septemvri Sofia season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Arda Kardzhali 5 of 11 (2 of 5 at home), Septemvri Sofia 7 of 11 (3 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 45% and 50%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 41% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 60% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.8 (Arda Kardzhali) v 0.75 (Septemvri Sofia) give 47%; 30% weight: 46%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 47%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.