2. Bundesliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 12:30 UK time
CompactStats rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel (2. Bundesliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth 42%, the draw 26% and Holstein Kiel 32%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | – |
| Both teams to score | 58% | Yes |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth win | 42% | Pick |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Holstein Kiel win | 32% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | |
| Goal in both halves | 59% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 8 | 38% | 25% | 75% |
| Holstein Kiel | 8 | 38% | 38% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 37% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 83% | 84% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 48% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 59% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 76% | 80% | 50 |
| Holstein Kiel | 68% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 77% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: SpVgg Greuther Fürth season stats · Holstein Kiel season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form
League. 2. Bundesliga has had over 2.5 goals in 57% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 of 8 (1 of 4 at home), Holstein Kiel 3 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 59% and 55%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 57%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 57%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.5 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) v 1.28 (Holstein Kiel) give 53%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.