Virsliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 11:00 UK time
CompactStats rates FK Liepaja vs Super Nova (Virsliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with FK Liepaja 56%, the draw 25% and Super Nova 19%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| FK Liepaja win | 56% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Super Nova win | 19% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | |
| Goal in both halves | 61% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 33 | 61% | 33% | 55% |
| Super Nova | 33 | 52% | 12% | 55% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 72% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 43% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 61% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 80% | 86% | 50 |
| Super Nova | 64% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: FK Liepaja season stats · Super Nova season stats · Virsliga table and form
League. Virsliga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. FK Liepaja 20 of 33 (11 of 16 at home), Super Nova 17 of 33 (8 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 58% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 58% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 55%.
Head to head. 8 meetings in 3 years, 88% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 56%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.71 (FK Liepaja) v 0.89 (Super Nova) give 48%; 30% weight: 54%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.