Super League · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:30 UK time
CompactStats rates FC Lugano vs FC Basel 1893 (Super League, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 66% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with FC Lugano 67%, the draw 18% and FC Basel 1893 15%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | – |
| Both teams to score | 64% | Yes |
| FC Lugano win | 67% | Pick |
| Draw | 18% | |
| FC Basel 1893 win | 15% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | |
| Goal in both halves | 66% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 10 | 90% | 70% | 60% |
| FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 80% | 50% | 70% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 38% | 43% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 86% | 85% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 52% | 57% |
| Goal in both halves | 66% | 66% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 47% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 68% | 92% | 50 |
| FC Basel 1893 | 78% | 86% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 82% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: FC Lugano season stats · FC Basel 1893 season stats · Super League table and form
League. Super League has had over 2.5 goals in 68% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. FC Lugano 9 of 10 (5 of 6 at home), FC Basel 1893 8 of 10 (4 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 75% and 72%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 62% and 67%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 65%.
Head to head. 12 meetings in 3 years, 58% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 65%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.43 (FC Lugano) v 1.07 (FC Basel 1893) give 68%; 30% weight: 66%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.