Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 19:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Danubio vs Club Nacional (Primera Division, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Danubio 23%, the draw 27% and Club Nacional 50%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Danubio win | 23% | |
| Draw | 27% | |
| Club Nacional win | 50% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 48% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 33 | 36% | 21% | 45% |
| Club Nacional | 33 | 58% | 27% | 55% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 64% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 27% | 27% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 44% | 42% |
| Goal in both halves | 48% | 47% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 46% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 62% | 70% | 50 |
| Club Nacional | 66% | 80% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 67% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Danubio season stats · Club Nacional season stats · Primera Division table and form
League. Primera Division has had over 2.5 goals in 43% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Danubio 12 of 33 (5 of 16 at home), Club Nacional 19 of 33 (9 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 39% and 52%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 40% and 52%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.91 (Danubio) v 1.48 (Club Nacional) give 43%; 30% weight: 45%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 46%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.