Virsliga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 11:00 UK time
CompactStats rates BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums (Virsliga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with BFC Daugavpils 63%, the draw 22% and Tukums 15%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 55% | Yes |
| BFC Daugavpils win | 63% | Pick |
| Draw | 22% | |
| Tukums win | 15% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | |
| Goal in both halves | 58% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 33 | 42% | 24% | 55% |
| Tukums | 33 | 67% | 36% | 76% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 71% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 38% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 82% | 82% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 46% |
| Goal in both halves | 58% | 60% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| BFC Daugavpils | 54% | 84% | 50 |
| Tukums | 82% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: BFC Daugavpils season stats · Tukums season stats · Virsliga table and form
League. Virsliga has had over 2.5 goals in 53% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. BFC Daugavpils 14 of 33 (7 of 17 at home), Tukums 22 of 33 (11 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 61%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 49% and 59%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Head to head. 11 meetings in 3 years, 45% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.9 (BFC Daugavpils) v 0.78 (Tukums) give 50%; 30% weight: 52%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 53%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.