MLS · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 21:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC (MLS, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with Atlanta United FC 42%, the draw 25% and Toronto FC 33%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | – |
| Both teams to score | 63% | Yes |
| Atlanta United FC win | 42% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Toronto FC win | 33% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | |
| Goal in both halves | 61% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 30 | 63% | 40% | 63% |
| Toronto FC | 31 | 68% | 35% | 77% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 75% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 41% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 81% | 81% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 54% | 51% |
| Goal in both halves | 61% | 64% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 45% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 72% | 82% | 50 |
| Toronto FC | 70% | 82% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 78% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Atlanta United FC season stats · Toronto FC season stats · MLS table and form
League. MLS has had over 2.5 goals in 61% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Atlanta United FC 19 of 30 (12 of 15 at home), Toronto FC 21 of 31 (9 of 15 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 62% and 65%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 61% and 61%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 61%.
Head to head. 5 meetings in 3 years, 40% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 60%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.55 (Atlanta United FC) v 1.33 (Toronto FC) give 55%; 30% weight: 58%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.