Primeira Liga · Sunday, 1 November 2026 · 15:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Arouca vs Nacional (Primeira Liga, Sunday, 1 November 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with Arouca 50%, the draw 25% and Nacional 25%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | Yes |
| Arouca win | 50% | Pick |
| Draw | 25% | |
| Nacional win | 25% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 69% | 69% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 36% | 36% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 79% | 79% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 43% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 55% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 73% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Arouca season stats · Nacional season stats · Primeira Liga table and form
League. Primeira Liga has had over 2.5 goals in 54% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Arouca 4 of 8 (3 of 4 at home), Nacional 5 of 8 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 53% and 56%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 59% and 49%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 54%.
Head to head. 4 meetings in 3 years, 75% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 55%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.69 (Arouca) v 1.12 (Nacional) give 53%; 30% weight: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.