Nacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of 8 league games this season (63%) — 75% at home, 50% away. They've scored 9 and conceded 18, so their matches average 3.38 goals, and both teams have scored in 50% of them. Record: 1-1-6 in the Primeira Liga, where the division average is 55% over 2.5.
Full Nacional season view in the app →They are one of the division's more open sides: 63% of their games beat 2.5 goals, 8 points above the Primeira Liga average of 55%. That ranks them 9th of 18 for goals in their matches, 12th for scoring (1.13 a game) and 1st for goals conceded (2.25). They've kept 1 clean sheet and failed to score 3 times in 8 games — the goals dry up more often than the back line holds.
Across 8 matches with half-time data, 41% of the goals in their games have come after the break (16 before, 11 after). Nacional themselves have scored 4 in first halves and 5 in second.
| P | W | D | L | GF | GA | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 63% | 63% | 50% |
| Home | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Away | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
Home/away splits are small samples — our 30,582-match study found ~94% of such gaps are indistinguishable from chance, which is why the app's ratings pool them rather than trusting the split.
Their most common result this season is 2–3 (2 times). Biggest win: 2–0 at home to Estoril (Sun 16 Aug). Heaviest defeat: 0–4 at home to Famalicao. 2 of their 8 games have produced five goals or more. Current run: 3 straight matches over 2.5 goals.
Streaks read louder than they predict: our break study found a three-game goals run carries roughly ±4.6 points of signal — real, but small, and it resets entirely after a long lay-off.
In 34 league games last season Nacional's matches went over 2.5 goals 41% of the time. This season they're running hotter at 63%, up 21 points, though 8 games is a small sample to read much into.
Fixture links open our full rating for that match — form, head-to-head, goal timing and the score projection. How those are built is set out in the methodology.