HNL · Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 17:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Rijeka (HNL, Tuesday, 27 October 2026) 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with Dinamo Zagreb 71%, the draw 18% and HNK Rijeka 11%.
| Market | Our chance | Odds | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.73 | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 1.73 | Yes |
| Dinamo Zagreb win | 71% | 1.62 | Pick |
| Draw | 18% | 3.50 | |
| HNK Rijeka win | 11% | 4.75 | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | – | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | – | |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | – |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 78% | 67% | 67% |
| HNK Rijeka | 9 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 76% | 76% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 39% | 39% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 46% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 62% | 61% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 41% | 2nd 38% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb | 84% | 84% | 50 |
| HNK Rijeka | 66% | 74% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Dinamo Zagreb season stats · HNK Rijeka season stats · HNL table and form
League. HNL has had over 2.5 goals in 50% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Dinamo Zagreb 7 of 9 (3 of 5 at home), HNK Rijeka 6 of 9 (2 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 58% and 55%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 60% and 48%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 53%.
Head to head. 11 meetings in 3 years, 45% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 53%.
Goal model. Expected goals 2.28 (Dinamo Zagreb) v 0.75 (HNK Rijeka) give 58%; 30% weight: 54%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 55%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
| Market | Price | Bookmaker % | Our chance | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 45% | +0 |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 52% | -1 |
Bookmaker % has the bookmaker's margin removed, so it compares directly with our chance. Diff is the gap in points: plus means we rate the outcome likelier than the price does. It is not value or a tip: when we disagree, the bookmaker has usually been right. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from one bookmaker and move all the time.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.