USL Championship · Sunday, 25 October 2026 · 02:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The USL Championship average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Sacramento Republic at 49%, the draw at 25% and Oakland Roots at 27%, from expected goals of 1.7 and 1.19.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sacramento Republic have 9 in 29 this season (6 of 14 at home), Oakland Roots 13 in 29 (7 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 29 and 29 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 80%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.7 for Sacramento Republic and 1.19 for Oakland Roots. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Republic | 29 | 31% | 21% | 55% |
| Oakland Roots | 29 | 45% | 31% | 55% |
More: Sacramento Republic season stats · Oakland Roots season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.