Bundesliga · Friday, 23 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | 60% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts VfB Stuttgart at 68%, the draw at 20% and Borussia Mönchengladbach at 12%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 0.75.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.28 | 75% | 62% | -13% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.75 | 25% | 38% | +13% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 56% | -9% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.38, draw 5.00, Borussia Mönchengladbach 7.00.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. VfB Stuttgart have 3 in 6 this season (1 of 2 at home), Borussia Mönchengladbach 6 in 6 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 72%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 68% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 2.12 for VfB Stuttgart and 0.75 for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 50% | 33% | 50% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 100% | 50% | 67% |
More: VfB Stuttgart season stats · Borussia Mönchengladbach season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.