Serie A (W) · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 4–2 (half-time 1–2). Before kick-off we rated it 54% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 6, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Roma W at 61%, the draw at 22% and AC Milan W at 17%, from expected goals of 1.94 and 0.91.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 54% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 46% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 51% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Roma W 1.42, draw 4.33, AC Milan W 5.75.
The league sets the starting point. Serie A (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Roma W have 2 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), AC Milan W 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 86%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.94 for Roma W and 0.91 for AC Milan W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma W | 2 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| AC Milan W | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: Roma W season stats · AC Milan W season stats · Serie A (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.