Virsliga · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 14:00. Final score 2–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 55% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Riga at 72%, the draw at 19% and Super Nova at 10%, from expected goals of 2.17 and 0.66.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 71% | 55% | -15% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.25 | 29% | 45% | +15% |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | 44% | 52% | +7% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Riga 1.12, draw 8.50, Super Nova 15.00.
The league sets the starting point. Virsliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Riga have 24 in 32 this season (13 of 16 at home), Super Nova 16 in 32 (7 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 2.17 for Riga and 0.66 for Super Nova. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 32 | 75% | 56% | 56% |
| Super Nova | 32 | 50% | 13% | 53% |
More: Riga season stats · Super Nova season stats · Virsliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.