USL Championship · Sunday, 18 October 2026 · 02:00. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts El Paso Locomotive at 34%, the draw at 26% and Sacramento Republic at 39%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.41.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 51% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 50% | 49% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 54% | 55% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: El Paso Locomotive 2.50, draw 3.25, Sacramento Republic 2.40.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. El Paso Locomotive have 18 in 28 this season (8 of 13 at home), Sacramento Republic 9 in 28 (3 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 28 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.31 for El Paso Locomotive and 1.41 for Sacramento Republic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 28 | 64% | 36% | 64% |
| Sacramento Republic | 28 | 32% | 21% | 57% |
More: El Paso Locomotive season stats · Sacramento Republic season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.