HNL · Sunday, 11 October 2026. Final score 0–1 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 53% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 1, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 39%, the draw at 25% and NK Varazdin at 37%, from expected goals of 1.55 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 5 in 8 this season (1 of 2 at home), NK Varazdin 4 in 8 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 18%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.55 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.51 for NK Varazdin. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 8 | 63% | 50% | 75% |
| NK Varazdin | 8 | 50% | 38% | 50% |
More: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb season stats · NK Varazdin season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.