Super League · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Basel 1893 at 33%, the draw at 25% and FC Lugano at 42%, from expected goals of 1.27 and 1.48.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 60% | 58% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | 40% | 42% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 64% | +1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: FC Basel 1893 2.90, draw 3.70, FC Lugano 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Basel 1893 have 3 in 5 this season (1 of 2 at home), FC Lugano 4 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 73%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 64% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.27 for FC Basel 1893 and 1.48 for FC Lugano. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Basel 1893 | 5 | 60% | 40% | 60% |
| FC Lugano | 4 | 100% | 50% | 75% |
More: FC Basel 1893 season stats · FC Lugano season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.