Tukums v Ogre United — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Virsliga · Saturday, 5 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 66% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Virsliga average is 54%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Tukums at 68%, the draw at 17% and Ogre United at 15%, from expected goals of 2.62 and 1.19.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Virsliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Tukums have 21 in 28 this season (10 of 14 at home), Ogre United 18 in 27 (11 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 63%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 63%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.62 for Tukums and 1.19 for Ogre United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 66%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Tukums season stats · Ogre United season stats · Virsliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.