Liga MX · Monday, 31 August 2026 · 01:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Toluca at 58%, the draw at 21% and FC Juarez at 21%, from expected goals of 2.06 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Toluca have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), FC Juarez 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.06 for Toluca and 1.17 for FC Juarez. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Toluca season stats · FC Juarez season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.