Bundesliga · Friday, 28 August 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 80% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 20% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Bayern München at 69%, the draw at 15% and VfB Stuttgart at 16%, from expected goals of 3.15 and 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Bayern München have 32 in 34 this season (17 of 17 at home), VfB Stuttgart 25 in 34 (17 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 83% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 75%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 78%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 85%, from expected goals of 3.15 for Bayern München and 1.55 for VfB Stuttgart. Folding in 30% of that view gives 80%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 34 | 94% | 76% | 65% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 74% | 53% | 62% |
More: Bayern München season stats · VfB Stuttgart season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.