MLS · Monday, 24 August 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Atlanta United FC at 59%, the draw at 21% and Sporting Kansas City at 19%, from expected goals of 1.99 and 1.04.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 64% | 63% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 36% | 37% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 63% | 60% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atlanta United FC 1.70, draw 3.90, Sporting Kansas City 4.33.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atlanta United FC have 11 in 19 this season (7 of 9 at home), Sporting Kansas City 15 in 19 (9 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.99 for Atlanta United FC and 1.04 for Sporting Kansas City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 19 | 58% | 37% | 63% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 79% | 47% | 58% |
More: Atlanta United FC season stats · Sporting Kansas City season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.