Premier League · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Hull City at 33%, the draw at 24% and Manchester United at 43%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.58.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 58% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 42% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 47% | 59% | +13% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Hull City 7.00, draw 4.75, Manchester United 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hull City have 30 in 49 this season (14 of 25 at home), Manchester United 24 in 38 (13 of 19 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Hull City and 1.58 for Manchester United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 49 | 61% | 35% | 61% |
| Manchester United | 38 | 63% | 37% | 71% |
More: Hull City season stats · Manchester United season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.