Virsliga · Friday, 21 August 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Virsliga average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Auda at 63%, the draw at 19% and Tukums at 19%, from expected goals of 2.38 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. Virsliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Auda have 12 in 24 this season (7 of 11 at home), Tukums 19 in 26 (10 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 2.38 for Auda and 1.24 for Tukums. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Auda season stats · Tukums season stats · Virsliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.