Liga MX · Sunday, 16 August 2026 · 00:00. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 51% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Atlante FC at 35%, the draw at 26% and Toluca at 39%, from expected goals of 1.31 and 1.39.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 51% | -7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 49% | +7% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55% | 57% | +2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Atlante FC 6.00, draw 4.00, Toluca 1.55.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Atlante FC have 2 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Toluca 2 in 3 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 55%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.31 for Atlante FC and 1.39 for Toluca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlante FC | 3 | 67% | 33% | 100% |
| Toluca | 3 | 67% | 33% | 67% |
More: Atlante FC season stats · Toluca season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.