Primera Nacional · Saturday, 15 August 2026 · 19:00. Final score 3–1 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 64% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 4, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 64% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | 86% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Ferro Carril Oeste at 38%, the draw at 28% and Atlanta at 34%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 30% | 36% | +5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.36 | 70% | 64% | -5% |
| Both teams to score | 2.62 | 35% | 41% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Ferro Carril Oeste 1.95, draw 3.00, Atlanta 4.50.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferro Carril Oeste have 9 in 24 this season (4 of 11 at home), Atlanta 10 in 23 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 33% and 38%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 33%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 1.12 for Atlanta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 36%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 24 | 38% | 13% | 42% |
| Atlanta | 23 | 43% | 17% | 43% |
More: Ferro Carril Oeste season stats · Atlanta season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.