USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–0 (half-time 0–0). Before kick-off we rated it 59% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 0, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | 80% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 33%, the draw at 34% and Sacramento Republic at 33%, from expected goals of 0.86 and 0.86.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Pittsburgh Riverhounds have 7 in 18 this season (3 of 9 at home), Sacramento Republic 6 in 17 (2 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 44% and 41%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 44%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 25%, from expected goals of 0.86 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 0.86 for Sacramento Republic. Folding in 30% of that view gives 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 18 | 39% | 17% | 39% |
| Sacramento Republic | 17 | 35% | 18% | 53% |
More: Pittsburgh Riverhounds season stats · Sacramento Republic season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.