USL Championship · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 0–3 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 60% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Orange County SC at 36%, the draw at 29% and Tampa Bay Rowdies at 35%, from expected goals of 1.1 and 1.09.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orange County SC have 7 in 18 this season (1 of 7 at home), Tampa Bay Rowdies 8 in 18 (1 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.1 for Orange County SC and 1.09 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange County SC | 18 | 39% | 33% | 61% |
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 18 | 44% | 33% | 50% |
More: Orange County SC season stats · Tampa Bay Rowdies season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.