Primera Nacional · Sunday, 9 August 2026. Final score 1–2 (half-time 0–1). Before kick-off we rated it 78% under 2.5 goals — the match finished with 3, so that call missed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 22% | 78% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 92% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 32% | 68% | No |
The result model puts Los Andes at 39%, the draw at 37% and Ferro Carril Oeste at 24%, from expected goals of 0.86 and 0.6.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 29% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Los Andes have 3 in 22 this season (1 of 12 at home), Ferro Carril Oeste 8 in 23 (4 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 20% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 27%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 24%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 18%, from expected goals of 0.86 for Los Andes and 0.6 for Ferro Carril Oeste. Folding in 30% of that view gives 22%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Andes | 22 | 14% | 5% | 18% |
| Ferro Carril Oeste | 23 | 35% | 13% | 39% |
More: Los Andes season stats · Ferro Carril Oeste season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.