Meistriliiga · Friday, 7 August 2026. Final score 3–2 (half-time 1–0). Before kick-off we rated it 58% over 2.5 goals — the match finished with 5, so that call landed. That rating was frozen into a version-controlled ledger before the game and has not been touched since.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Kuressaare at 39%, the draw at 28% and Laagri at 33%, from expected goals of 1.19 and 1.08.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kuressaare have 11 in 21 this season (5 of 10 at home), Laagri 14 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 66%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 71%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 64%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 40%, from expected goals of 1.19 for Kuressaare and 1.08 for Laagri. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 21 | 52% | 24% | 48% |
| Laagri | 21 | 67% | 33% | 48% |
More: Kuressaare season stats · Laagri season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.