Meistriliiga · Wednesday, 20 May 2026. Final score 2–1 (half-time 2–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 65% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Kuressaare at 45%, the draw at 25% and Nõmme United at 31%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.34.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kuressaare have 7 in 12 this season (3 of 6 at home), Nõmme United 11 in 12 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 64% and 76%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 76%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 68%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Kuressaare and 1.34 for Nõmme United. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuressaare | 12 | 58% | 25% | 50% |
| Nõmme United | 12 | 92% | 67% | 92% |
More: Kuressaare season stats · Nõmme United season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.