MLS · Sunday, 3 May 2026. Final score 2–3 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 67% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Columbus Crew at 47%, the draw at 27% and Minnesota United FC at 26%, from expected goals of 1.5 and 1.05.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Columbus Crew have 6 in 10 this season (1 of 5 at home), Minnesota United FC 5 in 10 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.5 for Columbus Crew and 1.05 for Minnesota United FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 10 | 60% | 30% | 70% |
| Minnesota United FC | 10 | 50% | 30% | 40% |
More: Columbus Crew season stats · Minnesota United FC season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.