Virsliga · Thursday, 9 April 2026. Final score 3–3 (half-time 2–1). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 55% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Riga at 73%, the draw at 17% and Tukums at 10%, from expected goals of 2.32 and 0.73.
The league sets the starting point. Virsliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Riga have 4 in 4 this season (1 of 1 at home), Tukums 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 2.32 for Riga and 0.73 for Tukums. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Riga season stats · Tukums season stats · Virsliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.