Ratings updated 06:05 UK time · refreshed several times a day

Liga MX · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · 01:00 UK

Toluca vs Monterrey: prediction and stats

Over 1.5Over 2.5Over 3.5BTTS (GG)W/D/L

83%Over 1.5 goals· very likely

86%Toluca, league games

77%Monterrey, league games

78%league

Toluca Over 1.5 in 7 straight at home

Monterrey Over 1.5 in 7 straight away

62%Over 2.5 goals· likely

64%Toluca, league games

54%Monterrey, league games

57%league

43%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar

50%Toluca, league games

38%Monterrey, league games

36%league

65%Both teams to score: Yes· likely

71%Toluca, league games

62%Monterrey, league games

61%league

Toluca BTTS (GG) in 4 straight at home

Monterrey BTTS (GG) in 3 straight away

Toluca BTTS (GG) in 6 consecutive matches (all venues)

54%Toluca win· close call

54%Toluca

20%Draw

25%Monterrey

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Toluca vs Monterrey (Liga MX, Sunday, 8 November 2026) 62% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with Toluca 54%, the draw 20% and Monterrey 25%.

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Form this season

Toluca

Over 2.5 this season · league games

All (14)64%

Home (7)86%

Away (7)43%

Home games (7)

Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5

	For	Against
Goals a game	2.6	1.6

Won 3 · drew 2 · lost 2 · both scored in 86%

Monterrey

Over 2.5 this season · league games

All (13)54%

Home (7)57%

Away (6)50%

Away games (6)

Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5

	For	Against
Goals a game	1.7	1.7

Won 2 · drew 1 · lost 3 · both scored in 67%

Latest results

Toluca

25 OctALeon LigaMXD1–1

22 OctHClub Tijuana LigaMXD2–2

18 OctHAtletico San Luis LigaMXD1–1

10 OctATigres UANL LigaMXL3–2

26 SeptACruz Azul LigaMXD3–3

21 SeptHSantos Laguna LigaMXL2–3

Monterrey

25 OctHGuadalajara Chivas LigaMXL0–1

22 OctAPuebla LigaMXW1–4

19 OctHCF Pachuca LigaMXW2–1

11 OctAClub America LigaMXD1–1

26 SeptAAtlante FC LigaMXL4–2

20 SeptHCruz Azul LigaMXW1–0

First and second half

	This game	Toluca	Monterrey	League
Goal in the 1st half	73%	62%	86%	72%
Goal in the 2nd half	77%	76%	74%	78%
Goal in both halves	57%	52%	64%	56%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 43% this game (league: 2nd half 42%).

This game = our chance. Toluca: last 50 games, Monterrey: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

11 Jan 26Monterrey 0–1 TolucaU2.5

7 Dec 25Toluca 3–2 MonterreyO2.5

4 Dec 25Monterrey 1–0 TolucaU2.5

25 Sept 25Toluca 6–2 MonterreyO2.5

11 May 25Toluca 2–1 MonterreyO2.5

8 May 25Monterrey 3–2 TolucaO2.5

More: Toluca season stats · Monterrey season stats · Liga MX table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.