Ratings updated 18:07 UK time · refreshed several times a day
Premier League · Sunday, 8 November 2026 · 16:30 UK

Manchester United vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats

80%Over 1.5 goals· very likely
89%Manchester United, league games
63%Aston Villa, league games
79%league
Manchester United Over 1.5 in 3 straight at home
58%Over 2.5 goals· likely
33%Manchester United, league games
63%Aston Villa, league games
57%league
34%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar
22%Manchester United, league games
38%Aston Villa, league games
32%league
58%Both teams to score: Yes· likely
56%Manchester United, league games
50%Aston Villa, league games
56%league
44%Manchester United win· close call
44%Manchester United
25%Draw
31%Aston Villa

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Manchester United vs Aston Villa (Premier League, Sunday, 8 November 2026) 58% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Manchester United 44%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 31%.

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Form this season

Manchester United

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (9)33%
Home (4)50%
Away (5)20%
Home games (4)
Last 4●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.51.8
Won 1 · drew 1 · lost 2 · both scored in 50%

Aston Villa

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (8)63%
Home (4)75%
Away (4)50%
Away games (4)
Last 4●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.01.5
Won 2 · drew 1 · lost 1 · both scored in 25%

Latest results

Manchester United

31 OctAChelsea PremL2–0
25 OctHBournemouth PremL0–3
21 OctAComo UCLL4–1
18 OctALeeds PremD1–1
13 OctAAtletico Madrid UCLL2–0
10 OctHTottenham PremD1–1

Aston Villa

28 OctABournemouth EFL CupL3–0
24 OctHManchester City PremW2–1
21 OctHViking UCLW3–1
17 OctANewcastle PremW0–1
14 OctHFenerbahçe UCLW6–0
10 OctHBrentford PremD2–2

First and second half

This gameManchester UnitedAston VillaLeague
Goal in the 1st half72%74%76%70%
Goal in the 2nd half81%86%84%80%
Goal in both halves61%62%64%57%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 46% this game (league: 2nd half 45%).

This game = our chance. Manchester United: last 50 games, Aston Villa: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

15 Mar 26Manchester United 3–1 Aston VillaO2.5
21 Dec 25Aston Villa 2–1 Manchester UnitedO2.5
25 May 25Manchester United 2–0 Aston VillaU2.5
6 Oct 24Aston Villa 0–0 Manchester UnitedU2.5
11 Feb 24Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester UnitedO2.5
26 Dec 23Manchester United 3–2 Aston VillaO2.5

More: Manchester United season stats · Aston Villa season stats · Premier League table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.