Ratings updated 00:10 UK time · refreshed several times a day
Championship (England) · Friday, 6 November 2026 · 20:00 UK

Derby vs Bolton: prediction and stats

77%Over 1.5 goals· very likely
83%Derby, league games
67%Bolton, league games
76%league
53%Over 2.5 goals· close call
50%Derby, league games
67%Bolton, league games
56%league
30%Over 3.5 goals· no prediction: under our 45% bar
17%Derby, league games
50%Bolton, league games
31%league
58%Both teams to score: Yes· likely
58%Derby, league games
58%Bolton, league games
60%league
37%Derby win· close call
37%Derby
27%Draw
36%Bolton

The model reads goals, not team news.

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CompactStats rates Derby vs Bolton (Championship, England, Friday, 6 November 2026) 53% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with Derby 37%, the draw 27% and Bolton 36%.

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Form this season

Derby

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (12)50%
Home (6)50%
Away (6)50%
Home games (6)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game0.71.7
Won 0 · drew 2 · lost 4 · both scored in 50%

Bolton

Over 2.5 this season · league games
All (12)67%
Home (6)67%
Away (6)67%
Away games (6)
Last 5●●●●●● = went over 2.5
ForAgainst
Goals a game1.51.8
Won 2 · drew 2 · lost 2 · both scored in 50%

Latest results

Derby

24 OctASheffield Utd ChampD1–1
17 OctHStoke City ChampL0–1
14 OctAQPR ChampL4–1
10 OctHWrexham ChampD1–1
19 SeptABurnley ChampD1–1
12 SeptHBirmingham ChampL1–2

Bolton

23 OctHMiddlesbrough ChampL1–5
17 OctASouthampton ChampD0–0
13 OctAWolves ChampW1–3
10 OctHStoke City ChampL1–2
20 SeptANorwich ChampW3–4
12 SeptHCardiff ChampW1–0

First and second half

This gameDerbyBoltonLeague
Goal in the 1st half73%86%62%73%
Goal in the 2nd half78%80%78%77%
Goal in both halves58%66%52%56%

Half with most goals: 2nd half 44% this game (league: 2nd half 41%).

This game = our chance. Derby: last 50 games, Bolton: last 50 games, every competition. League = last season and this season.

Head to head

16 Mar 24Derby 1–0 BoltonU2.5
2 Sept 23Bolton 2–1 DerbyO2.5
21 Jan 23Derby 2–1 BoltonO2.5
27 Dec 22Bolton 0–0 DerbyU2.5

More: Derby season stats · Bolton season stats · Championship (England) table and form

Built from both teams’ form this season, last season’s record and the league’s level, plus a goal model, checked against real results.

What our percentages mean

They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.