PSL · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Siwelele vs Orlando Pirates (PSL, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 33% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with Siwelele 13%, the draw 26% and Orlando Pirates 61%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – |
| Both teams to score | 41% | No |
| Siwelele win | 13% | |
| Draw | 26% | |
| Orlando Pirates win | 61% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | |
| Goal in both halves | 43% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siwelele | 8 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
| Orlando Pirates | 8 | 38% | 13% | 13% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | 59% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 25% | 23% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 28% | 30% |
| Goal in both halves | 43% | 43% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siwelele | 53% | 63% | 38 |
| Orlando Pirates | 66% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 55% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Siwelele season stats · Orlando Pirates season stats · PSL table and form
League. PSL has had over 2.5 goals in 30% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Siwelele 3 of 8 (1 of 4 at home), Orlando Pirates 3 of 8 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 32% and 32%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 24% and 34%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 30%.
Head to head. 2 meetings in 3 years, 0% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 28%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.54 (Siwelele) v 1.54 (Orlando Pirates) give 35%; 30% weight: 30%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 33%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.