PSL · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Richards Bay vs Stellenbosch (PSL, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 37% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with Richards Bay 29%, the draw 29% and Stellenbosch 42%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | – |
| Both teams to score | 47% | No |
| Richards Bay win | 29% | |
| Draw | 29% | |
| Stellenbosch win | 42% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 69% | |
| Goal in both halves | 43% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richards Bay | 8 | 75% | 50% | 100% |
| Stellenbosch | 8 | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 60% | 59% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 24% | 23% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 69% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 27% | 30% |
| Goal in both halves | 43% | 43% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richards Bay | 60% | 74% | 50 |
| Stellenbosch | 62% | 60% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 55% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Richards Bay season stats · Stellenbosch season stats · PSL table and form
League. PSL has had over 2.5 goals in 30% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Richards Bay 6 of 8 (5 of 5 at home), Stellenbosch 2 of 8 (1 of 5 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 42% and 29%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 31% and 29%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 30%.
Head to head. 6 meetings in 3 years, 50% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 31%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.01 (Richards Bay) v 1.28 (Stellenbosch) give 40%; 30% weight: 34%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 37%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.