PSL · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 17:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Polokwane City vs Kruger United (PSL, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with Polokwane City 35%, the draw 36% and Kruger United 29%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14% | – |
| Both teams to score | 41% | No |
| Polokwane City win | 35% | |
| Draw | 36% | Pick |
| Kruger United win | 29% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 61% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | |
| Goal in both halves | 46% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polokwane City | 8 | 38% | 25% | 50% |
| Kruger United | 8 | 38% | 25% | 25% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 61% | 59% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 22% | 23% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 71% | 70% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 32% | 30% |
| Goal in both halves | 46% | 43% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 43% | 2nd 40% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polokwane City | 54% | 58% | 50 |
| Kruger United | 72% | 90% | 39 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 55% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Polokwane City season stats · Kruger United season stats · PSL table and form
League. PSL has had over 2.5 goals in 30% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Polokwane City 3 of 8 (1 of 4 at home), Kruger United 3 of 8 (1 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 32% and 32%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 28% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 34%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.85 (Polokwane City) v 0.76 (Kruger United) give 22%; 30% weight: 31%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 34%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.