Primera A · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 01:10 UK time
CompactStats rates Millonarios vs America de Cali (Primera A, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with Millonarios 49%, the draw 30% and America de Cali 21%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | – |
| Both teams to score | 48% | No |
| Millonarios win | 49% | Pick |
| Draw | 30% | |
| America de Cali win | 21% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
In the app: live scores, every market including half-time goals, sortable tables and a slip you can share.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 35 | 49% | 26% | 63% |
| America de Cali | 36 | 44% | 17% | 42% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 65% | 67% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 34% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 76% | 73% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 38% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 41% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 54% | 86% | 50 |
| America de Cali | 70% | 76% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 68% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Millonarios season stats · America de Cali season stats · Primera A table and form
League. Primera A has had over 2.5 goals in 45% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Millonarios 17 of 35 (7 of 17 at home), America de Cali 16 of 36 (8 of 18 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 47% and 45%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 47% and 44%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 45%.
Head to head. 7 meetings in 3 years, 57% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.28 (Millonarios) v 0.71 (America de Cali) give 32%; 30% weight: 42%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 44%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.