Serie A · Wednesday, 4 November 2026 · 00:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Internacional vs Coritiba (Serie A, Wednesday, 4 November 2026) 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with Internacional 55%, the draw 24% and Coritiba 20%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – |
| Both teams to score | 53% | Yes |
| Internacional win | 55% | Pick |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Coritiba win | 20% | |
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | |
| Goal in both halves | 53% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 32 | 41% | 22% | 56% |
| Coritiba | 32 | 50% | 31% | 50% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 70% | 72% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 30% | 32% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 75% | 77% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 37% | 41% |
| Goal in both halves | 53% | 56% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 42% | 2nd 43% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 72% | 78% | 50 |
| Coritiba | 62% | 66% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 75% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Internacional season stats · Coritiba season stats · Serie A table and form
League. Serie A has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Internacional 13 of 32 (7 of 16 at home), Coritiba 16 of 32 (9 of 16 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 44% and 49%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 45% and 47%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 46%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.72 (Internacional) v 0.93 (Coritiba) give 50%; 30% weight: 47%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 48%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.